🏁 War over, hawk loose, S&P at 7,500. This week rewired everything

Gold flat, oil at $75, 9 Fed members want hikes — the weekly scorecard inside...

FRIDAY MARKET UPDATE

Markets are closed for Juneteenth. I'm not. This was the most consequential week of 2026. A war ended, a new Fed Chair showed his teeth, and the S&P still finished higher. Let me walk you through it.

🟩 | S&P 500 closed at 7,500 Thursday — recovered the full FOMC selloff in one session.

🟩 | Deal signed at Versailles — both Trump and Iran's president signed; the 110-day war is over.

🟥 | Gold dropped 2% on Warsh — 9 of 18 members project hikes; the new Fed is not your friend.

Gold & Macro — This Week in Metals

Week's winner: Dollar Week's loser: Silver

A war ended, oil crashed 34%, and gold still fell 2.6% — because Warsh's hawk hit harder than the peace dividend. The dollar won the week. That says everything.

THE WEEK THAT REWIRED YOUR PORTFOLIO

Empty Wall Street holiday morning

S&P 500 at 7,500. Nasdaq up 1.91% Thursday. Russell 2000 leading at +2.12% — small caps haven't outperformed like that since March. Intel surged 9.8% on the Apple chip partnership. SpaceX at $208, up 54% from its IPO price in one week. The market is back at all-time highs after a 24-hour FOMC panic that turned out to be a dip, not a trend.

Here's the weekly scorecard that matters: CPI at 4.2%. PPI at 6.5%. Oil at $75. Deal signed at Versailles. Warsh removed forward guidance and signaled hikes. Intel partnered with Apple. SpaceX hit $2.5 trillion. And the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) drew down 8.3 million barrels — putting the reserve at decades-low levels. That last one is the hidden risk. If Hormuz mine clearance stalls or the deal unravels, the U.S. has no oil buffer.

Two forces are now racing. Warsh's 2% commitment says hike if inflation stays. Oil at $75 says it won't. October's FOMC — with a 60.7% hike probability — is the tiebreaker. Everything between now and then is the market placing its bet.

What to watch:

Monday: markets reopen. Nvidia shareholder meeting June 24. Hormuz mine clearance starts — 30-day deadline is mid-July. Deal implementation is everything now.

Heat Check

Nathan’s Take

“The war ended and the Fed got hawkish in the same 24 hours. The market digested both and finished higher. That tells you everything about what's driving this tape — and it isn't peace.”

Names to Know

INTEL, SPACEX, ORACLE

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 10.64% ) — surged on the Apple chip partnership for U.S. manufacturing; BofA double-upgraded to buy; CEO Tan's foundry strategy validated.

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 3.56% ) — at $208, acquired Cursor AI for $60B, market cap above $2.5 trillion; now the 5th-largest U.S. public company.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 0.41% ) — fell after announcing $20B in AI infrastructure debt despite flat sales; the capex-without-revenue problem persists.

Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 1.97% ) — led Thursday's rally; small caps benefiting from falling yields, cheaper oil, and the deal's breadth signal.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▼ 2.08% ) — oil at $75 has erased the war premium; the sector that led H1 is now the biggest loser of the peace.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🛢️ | SPR drew down a record 8.3 million barrels last week — stockpiles at decades-low levels and in “operational stress”.

🏛️ | Warsh announced five task forces to overhaul Fed communications, balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation measurement.

📊 | CME FedWatch shows 60.7% probability of a rate hike in October — the market is pricing Warsh's first move.

🇯🇵 | Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% this week — global tightening continues even as the deal eases oil.

🤖 | SpaceX acquired Cursor AI for $60B — analysts say it puts the company “in direct competition with Anthropic and OpenAI”.

Where I Missed

On Tuesday I framed the week as “Warsh inherits the best hand in months”. I underestimated how aggressively he'd play it. I expected a cautious hold-and-signal. He delivered a 130-word statement, removed all forward guidance, and let 9 hawkish dots speak for him. That's not patience — that's a paradigm shift. The gold call on Monday was right directionally but wrong about the ceiling — I said $4,500 if Warsh signaled patience. He didn't. Gold dropped 2% instead. The lesson: don't assume a new Fed Chair inherits the old Fed's playbook.

The deal is signed. The hawk is loose. The oil is falling. Have a good weekend — next week we find out if any of it sticks.

Know someone who'd read this? Forward this email. It's free.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights