Sept hike odds hit 68%. NFP Friday decides everything

Nathan Reed

— 4 min read
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Sept hike odds hit 68%. NFP Friday decides everything

MONDAY MARKET UPDATE

August starts with a jobs week. NFP on Friday. ISM Manufacturing today. JOLTS tomorrow. September hike odds just climbed to 68% — the dissenters are winning the narrative even though they lost the vote. Gold is at $4,068 and half the poll crowd expects it to stay range-bound all month. Let's see if they're right.

  • | September hike odds hit 68% — up from 63% last week; three FOMC dissenters warned “delaying could require more aggressive tightening”.
  • | Gold at $4,068 — holding above $4,000 but capped below $4,100; trapped between war premium and hike expectations.
  • | NFP Friday — jobs week begins; last payrolls shocked at 57K (vs 110K expected); if August repeats, the hike case weakens fast.

Gold & Macro

68% SAY SEPTEMBER HIKE. NFP DECIDES

September hike odds climbed to 68% over the weekend. The three dissenters — Hammack, Kashkari, Logan — are winning the narrative even though they lost the vote 3-9. Their warning hit hard: “delaying action could require more aggressive tightening”. Translation: hike now at 25bps, or risk hiking 50bps later. The market heard it. Gold is at $4,068, capped below $4,100 for the seventh straight session.

This week's data decides whether September stays at 68% or collapses. NFP is the anchor — Friday morning, 8:30am. The July jobs report. Last month payrolls shocked at 57K versus 110K expected. If August repeats that weakness, the labor market argument for hiking evaporates. If payrolls come in strong — 150K+ — September is locked. Gold's fate this month comes down to one number on one morning.

JP Morgan still targets $6,300 gold by year-end but flagged the biggest risk: “a Fed that crystallizes behind a hiking cycle could crack investor demand”. That's exactly what the 68% probability is pricing. The bull case needs weak data. The bear case just needs the economy to hold.

The Trade

JOBS WEEK. THE LAST DATA BEFORE JACKSON HOLE

This is the week that sets up August. ISM Manufacturing today — if it prints below 50, the factory sector is contracting for the first time since the war began. JOLTS tomorrow — job openings hit a 2-year high last month, which is exactly what the hawks don't want to see. Services PMI Wednesday. Jobless claims Thursday. Then the main event: nonfarm payrolls Friday morning.

Earnings season is effectively over. Microsoft won. Apple fell. The AI trade is now about Nvidia in late August. Until then, macro data owns the market. If the data this week shows a weakening labor market, the September hike drops below 50% and gold rallies to $4,200+. If the data shows strength, the dissenters were right and Warsh hikes in September. The poll crowd expects range — $3,900-$4,100 all month. They might be right, unless Friday's NFP breaks the stalemate.

What to watch:

Today: ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow: JOLTS job openings. Wednesday: Services PMI. Thursday: jobless claims. Friday 8:30am: nonfarm payrolls.

Heat Check

S&P 500 Heatmap — August 3, 2026. Credit: Finviz
S&P 500 Heatmap — August 3, 2026. Credit: Finviz

Nathan’s Take

“The three dissenters lost the vote and won the market. September hike odds went from 56% to 68% in a week — without a single new data point. Just words. That's how much credibility Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan have right now. Friday's jobs number either validates them or silences them. There is no middle ground”

Names to Know

CATERPILLAR, UBER, GLD

Caterpillar $CAT (reports this week) — the infrastructure bellwether; demand from tariff-driven reshoring vs China slowdown; the ISM Manufacturing preview.

Uber $UBER (reports this week) — first results since the $14.8B Delivery Hero acquisition announcement; integration timeline and consumer spending trends.

SPDR Gold Trust $GLD (flat) — seventh straight session below $4,100; the $4,000-$4,100 range is tightening; NFP Friday will break it in one direction.

Devon Energy $DVN (reports this week) — shale producer benefiting from sustained $84 Brent; free cash flow and shareholder returns are the metrics.

Palantir $PLTR (reports this week) — AI revenue growth vs valuation compression; the test of whether defense-oriented AI names hold up better than consumer ones.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

  • | Central banks sold 129 tonnes of gold in Q1 (Türkiye 60t alone) — but unreported purchases estimated at 244t (World Gold Council); the real buying is hidden.
  • | JP Morgan's bearish risk: “a Fed that crystallizes behind a hiking cycle could crack investor demand” — that's exactly what the 68% September odds are pricing.
  • | US-Iran strikes continuing — no diplomatic progress; Oman talks stalled; Houthis still hitting Red Sea; oil holding $84 Brent.
  • | 10-12.5% tariffs now in effect — first full month of Section 301 impact; consumer prices will reflect tariff passthrough starting in August CPI.
  • | Key August dates: NFP Aug 7, CPI Aug 12, Nvidia late Aug, Jackson Hole Aug 27-29, next FOMC Sept 15-16.

ISM today. JOLTS tomorrow. NFP Friday. The first week of August writes the script for Jackson Hole. Stay sharp.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights

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