Warsh held. Three dissenters. Zero guidance. Apple reports tonight

Nathan Reed

— 4 min read
Share
Warsh held. Three dissenters. Zero guidance. Apple reports tonight

THURSDAY MARKET UPDATE

Microsoft broke the pattern. Eight AI names beat and fell. Microsoft was the ninth — and the stock surged 9% after hours. Azure hit $100 billion annually. EPS beat by 12%. Warsh held rates, got three dissenters, and gave zero guidance. Meta's profit fell 14%. Apple and Amazon report tonight. This is the morning after the biggest 24 hours of the summer.

  • | Microsoft +9% after hours — $90B revenue (+18%), EPS $4.74 (beat by 12%), Azure +43%, Copilot 30M seats; broke the beat-and-sell curse.
  • | FOMC held 9-3 — three dissenters wanted to hike; most since 2016; Warsh: “I asked for a good family fight and I got one”.
  • | Meta profit −14% — revenue $60.8B (+28%) beat but costs surged; raised capex floor; stock fell after hours.

Gold & Macro

WARSH HELD. THREE DISSENTERS. ZERO GUIDANCE

Gavel dissent folders desk lamp

Warsh held. Rates stay at 3.50-3.75%. But the 9-3 vote told the real story. Three regional bank presidents — Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan — voted to hike immediately. That's the most dissents since September 2016. Warsh said he “asked for a good family fight and got one”. Then he gave the press conference with the least forward guidance in modern Fed history. September is wide open. He wouldn't say if the data would need to worsen for a hike, or improve for a hold. Nothing. Just: we'll see.

Gold is trading near $4,100 this morning. The hold was priced in, but the hawkish dissenters spooked the bond market — the 30-year hit 5.19%, highest in 18 months. The Dow dropped 802 points on the FOMC day. The 10-year rose to 4.66%. Gold is caught between the hold (bullish) and the dissenters (bearish). The metal needs to pick a side before Friday's close.

Warsh also warned that AI investment could “complicate the inflation outlook”. That's the first time a Fed Chair has directly connected AI capex to monetary policy. When the person who sets rates says your $600 billion in spending is inflationary, it matters.

The Trade

MICROSOFT BROKE THE CURSE. APPLE IS NEXT

Microsoft campus rain puddle Redmond

Microsoft: $90.01 billion revenue. $4.74 EPS. Azure +43%. Annual Azure revenue crossed $100 billion for the first time. Copilot reached 30 million paid seats. Q1 FY27 guidance: Azure 45% growth. The stock surged 9% after hours. Eight AI names beat and fell before this. Microsoft was the ninth — and it broke the pattern. The difference: Azure isn't just growing. It's accelerating. And management guided Q1 higher, not lower. That's confidence the market hasn't seen from a Mag 7 name in two months.

Meta told the opposite story. Revenue beat at $60.8 billion (+28%), but profit fell 14% as costs surged. The company raised the lower end of its capex forecast. Stock dropped. The split is real: Microsoft proved AI revenue is materializing. Meta proved AI spending is accelerating faster than returns. Apple and Amazon report tonight. Apple is the 60% of our poll crowd's pick to break the pattern — but Microsoft already did. Now the question is whether Apple confirms it or contradicts it.

What to watch:

Tonight after close: Apple + Amazon. Tomorrow: GDP Q2 revision + personal income + PCE inflation. Jackson Hole Aug 27-29.

Heat Check

S&P 500 Heatmap — July 30, 2026. Credit: Finviz
S&P 500 Heatmap — July 30, 2026. Credit: Finviz

Nathan’s Take

“Microsoft proved what the last eight couldn't: AI spending can accelerate revenue, not just costs. Azure guided to 45% next quarter. Meta proved the opposite: costs can outrun revenue even when you grow 28%. Same thesis. Different execution. The market just drew the line between winners and pretenders — and it drew it overnight”

Names to Know

MICROSOFT, APPLE, AMAZON

Microsoft $MSFT (▲ 9% AH) — $90B revenue (+18%); EPS $4.74 (beat 12%); Azure +43%, $100B annual; 30M Copilot seats; Q1 Azure guided 45%.

Apple $AAPL (reports tonight) — consensus $1.89 EPS, $108.9B revenue; Apple Intelligence adoption and Services growth; Tim Cook's last earnings call as CEO.

Amazon $AMZN (reports tonight) — consensus $196.5B revenue; AWS margin and AI services are the metrics; Alexa+ monetization.

Samsung — Q2 operating profit surged 1,814% on AI memory demand; HBM and server chips driving record results; the memory cycle is alive.

Meta $META (▼ AH) — revenue $60.8B beat (+28%) but profit fell 14%; costs surging faster than revenue; raised capex floor; the AI spending warning.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

  • | Warsh: AI capex could “complicate the inflation outlook” — first Fed Chair to directly connect AI spending to monetary policy; $600B in Mag 7 capex is now a rate-setting input.
  • | 30-year Treasury hit 5.19% — highest in 18 months; 10Y at 4.66%; the long end is pricing in structurally higher inflation from oil, tariffs, and AI spending.
  • | Anthropic investment added $3.2B gain to Microsoft's quarter — $0.27 EPS benefit; AI isn't just a cost center for MSFT, it's generating investment returns too.
  • | Next FOMC: September 15-16 — Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Aug 27-29; that speech will be the first real signal on September's direction.
  • | Samsung profit +1,814% on AI memory — HBM demand record; the memory cycle lives despite CXMT and Moonshot fears.

Apple tonight. Amazon tonight. Jackson Hole in four weeks. September FOMC in seven. The summer isn't over — it just got its thesis.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights

Read more