Gold surged 2% to $4,069, ADP vs JOLTS split, last session before July 4th...

THURSDAY MARKET UPDATE

Payrolls day. The number that decides the summer lands at 8:30. Warsh softened his tone at Sintra yesterday — said inflation risks have “eased” — and gold surged 2% to $4,090. JOLTS hit a two-year high. Markets closed tomorrow for July 4th. This is the last trading session before a long weekend. Everything gets priced today.

🟩 | Gold surged 2% to $4,069 — biggest daily jump in weeks as Warsh softened tone at ECB Forum.

🟩 | JOLTS hit a two-year high — job openings strong; but ADP missed yesterday (98K vs 117K).

🟥 | Markets close tomorrow for July 4th — payrolls reaction gets compressed into one session; volatility guaranteed.

Gold & Macro

WARSH BLINKED. GOLD JUMPED 2%

Gold surged 2% yesterday to $4,090 — the biggest daily jump in six weeks. This morning it's at $4,069, holding above $4,000. The catalyst: Warsh at the ECB Forum in Sintra said inflation risks and expectations have “eased in recent weeks”. Four words from a Fed Chair moved gold $80 in a day.

The data is sending mixed signals. JOLTS showed job openings at a two-year high — tight labor market, hawkish signal. ADP missed at 98K — third straight monthly decline, dovish signal. The market is confused. And at 8:30 this morning, payrolls will settle the debate. Consensus expects 85K. Anything above 100K = hike narrative intact, gold retreats. Below 60K = recession fears, gold runs. The Goldilocks number is 70–90K with cooling wages.

Silver at $59 bounced 1.3% with gold. Oil at $69 WTI. Markets close tomorrow — everything gets priced into today's session. The payrolls reaction will be compressed and amplified. Be ready.

The Trade

PAYROLLS AT 8:30. THE SUMMER STARTS NOW

This is it. June nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. The number that sets the tone for the entire second half. The S&P closed Q2 up 14%. The Nasdaq gained 20%. But Nike's CEO says retail is “not normal”. ADP missed. Consumer sentiment is falling. The rally was AI and the deal. Everything else is wobbling.

If payrolls surprise strong, Warsh's Sintra softening gets overridden — September hike odds jump, tech gets hit, value keeps winning. If payrolls are weak, the “soft landing” narrative revives, rate-sensitive sectors rally, gold runs. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 Monday — $4.3B in passive inflows regardless of the number. And the Supreme Court left Fed independence intact, removing one tail risk.

What to watch:

Today 8:30 a.m.: June nonfarm payrolls (consensus 85K). ISM Manufacturing (10 a.m.). Friday: markets closed for July 4th. Monday: SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100.

Heat Check

Nathan’s Take

“Warsh said inflation has “eased.” Four words moved gold $80. Now payrolls will either confirm him or make him look like he blinked too early. One number. One session. Then a long weekend to think about it”

Names to Know

GENERAL MILLS, CONSTELLATION, IRIDIUM

General Mills $GIS (▼ 4%) — missed Q4 and cut full-year guidance; consumers trading down to private label; cereal demand weakening.

Constellation Brands $STZ (▼ 7%) — cut guidance citing “economic uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior”; Modelo and Corona volume softening.

Iridium $IRDM (▲ 63%) — surging on Rocket Lab's $8B acquisition offer; shares nearly doubled since last week. (Satellite communications — being acquired by Rocket Lab.)

UnitedHealth $UNH (▲ 3.2%) — recovering from its worst quarter as healthcare becomes a defensive rotation target.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — due at 10 a.m.; a sub-50 reading would confirm the factory recession narrative; above 50 supports the bull case.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🏛️ | Warsh at Sintra: inflation risks have “eased” — first dovish signal since taking office; gold jumped 2%; September hike odds slipped to 58%.

📊 | JOLTS surged to a two-year high — job openings contradicting the ADP miss; labor market sending contradictory signals ahead of payrolls.

🕊️ | Qatar talks continuing through mediators — no direct US-Iran contact; Iran demanded $34B in frozen assets be released before any deal advances.

🚀 | SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 Monday — $4.3B in passive inflows expected; the stock is still below its IPO opening price.

🇺🇸 | Markets closed Friday for Independence Day — today is the last session until Monday; payrolls reaction compressed into one day.

Payrolls at 8:30. Markets closed tomorrow. Happy Fourth. I'll be back Monday.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights