Iran says Hormuz is closed. Gold fell anyway. Tomorrow's CPI is the only voice that matters.

Nathan Reed

— 4 min read
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Iran says Hormuz is closed. Gold fell anyway. Tomorrow's CPI is the only voice that matters.

MONDAY MARKET UPDATE

Iran says Hormuz is closed. The Pentagon says it isn't. The US launched its fourth strike in a week on Sunday. Gold dropped below $4,100. And the single most important 24 hours of the summer starts tomorrow morning: CPI at 8:30am, Warsh's first Congressional testimony at 10am. Today is the positioning day. Tomorrow is the reckoning.

  • Iran declared Hormuz “closed until further notice” — US Central Command dismissed the claim; fourth US strike on Sunday.
  • Gold fell to $4,068 — down 1.4% on war-driven oil surge; the safe-haven paradox continues.
  • Tomorrow: CPI + Warsh testimony — headline CPI may dip on energy but core stays sticky at 2.9%; the summer verdict arrives.

Gold & Macro

HORMUZ “CLOSED”. GOLD FELL. TOMORROW DECIDES

Oil tanker anchored open water overcast

Gold at $4,068 this morning. Down 1.4%. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed until further notice” after the US launched its fourth strike in a week. CENTCOM dismissed the claim. Oil surged 9% over five days. And gold dropped. Again. The mechanism is now fully understood: conflict → oil → inflation expectations → hike odds → gold falls. War hasn't been bullish for gold since the conflict began.

Tomorrow's CPI at 8:30am will be the most closely watched number of the summer. Kiplinger warns: the headline may dip on a gasoline correction — possibly even going negative month-over-month. But core CPI is expected at 0.3%, steady at 2.9% YoY. The Fed won't be fooled by a headline dip driven by energy. Warsh testifies 90 minutes after CPI drops. His response in real time will set the market's tone for the next six weeks.

Gold's fate tomorrow comes down to one question: does Warsh use CPI as ammunition for September, or does he acknowledge the energy-driven distortion?

The Trade

SK HYNIX RAISED $26.5B. THE IPO WINDOW IS WIDE OPEN

Technician bunny suit wafer UV light

SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion on Friday — the largest US listing by a foreign company in history. Shares popped 12.8% above their offering price. That's the second mega-IPO in a month after SpaceX. The capital markets are wide open for companies with real revenue and AI exposure. Meta surged 15% last week — its best since early 2024 — on reports it's building AI capacity at half the expected cost per gigawatt.

But tomorrow is the real test. CPI and Warsh's testimony arrive before lunch. If core inflation stays sticky, the September hike is back on the table and the tech rally stalls. If CPI shows the energy-driven spike was transitory, the bull case extends to S&P 8,000. JPMorgan and Goldman report earnings this week too — trading revenue should surge on war volatility. Bank season kicks off under a geopolitical cloud.

What to watch:

Tomorrow 8:30am: June CPI. Tomorrow 10am: Warsh testimony. This week: JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup earnings. July 29: FOMC decision.

Heat Check

S&P 500 Heatmap — July 13, 2026. Credit: Finviz
S&P 500 Heatmap — July 13, 2026. Credit: Finviz

Nathan’s Take

“Warsh skipped the dot plot three weeks ago. Tomorrow he sits in front of Congress with a live CPI number in his hand. Whatever he says in that chair writes the rest of the summer”

Names to Know

SK HYNIX, META, CITIGROUP

SK Hynix $SKHYV (▲ 12.8% debut) — raised $26.5B in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company; opened 12.8% above offering price; AI memory demand validated.

Meta Platforms $META (▲ 15% WoW) — best week since Feb 2024; SemiAnalysis report showed AI compute costs at half expectations; cloud business plans emerging.

Citigroup $C (reports this week) — joins JPM and Goldman in Q2 bank earnings; trading desks likely benefited from war-driven volatility in oil and rates.

AstraZeneca $AZN (▼ 8%) — crashed after heart disease drug Wainua failed a late-stage trial; pharma pipeline risk in one chart.

Northrop Grumman $NOC (▲ 4.5%) — defense stocks extending their rally as the war escalates; Hormuz closure threat adds urgency to military spending.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

  • Iran declared Hormuz “closed until further notice” — US CENTCOM dismissed the claim; oil surged 9% over five days; conflicting reports on actual shipping status.
  • Kiplinger: June headline CPI may go negative month-over-month — gasoline correction after three months of surges; but core expected at 0.3%/2.9% YoY, exactly where it was a year ago.
  • Chicago Fed's Goolsbee warned inflation is “trending in the wrong direction” — while NY Fed's Williams sees inflation easing; the internal Fed split is widening.
  • Micron raised its US investment plan to $250B through 2035 (from $200B) — plus $3B into GlobalWafers silicon capacity in Texas; the AI buildout accelerates.
  • This week: CPI (Tue 8:30am), Warsh testimony (Tue 10am), PPI (Wed), retail sales (Thu), JPM/GS/Citi earnings, FOMC Jul 29.

CPI tomorrow at 8:30. Warsh at 10. Banks this week. Set the alarm. Bring coffee. This is the week.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights

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