Gold −1.6%. Silver −5.7%. Oil +7%. Your scorecard tells you where the money went

Nathan Reed

— 3 min read
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Gold −1.6%. Silver −5.7%. Oil +7%. Your scorecard tells you where the money went

FRIDAY MARKET UPDATE

What a week. The Versailles deal collapsed. Airstrikes resumed. Oil surged 7%. Then Iran reached out seeking a new deal. Gold whipsawed from $4,183 to $4,067 and back to $4,115. The FOMC confirmed hawks lead 9-8. And Monday brings the June CPI and Warsh testimony — the most important one-two punch of the summer. This scorecard captures the chaos.

  • Deal collapsed, airstrikes resumed — two days of US-Iran bombing; Hormuz shipping slowing again; oil +7% WoW.
  • Silver crashed 5.7% WoW — worst week since June; industrial demand fears + war inflation = double hit.
  • Iran seeking a new deal — Trump confirmed Tehran reached out; markets calming into Friday; CPI Monday decides the next move.

Gold & Macro

Gold & Macro — This Week in Metals

chart

The Trade

OIL +7%. CPI MONDAY. WARSH TESTIFIES. BUCKLE UP

Tanker Strait of Hormuz escort boats

Oil rose 7% this week. Brent back above $78. WTI at $74. Hormuz shipping is slowing again as US and Iran exchange airstrikes. The disinflation pipeline that powered Q2's rally just broke. If oil stays above $75, June CPI — due Monday at 8:30am — will be hotter than the 3.6% consensus. And Warsh testifies 90 minutes after CPI. That combination could set the market's direction for the rest of the summer.

But Iran reached out seeking a new deal. Trump confirmed it. If talks resume, oil reverses and the whole script flips. NY Fed's Williams said he's most focused on “demand fueled by artificial intelligence” as an inflation driver — not oil. That's a new wrinkle. Bank earnings kick off Monday too: JPMorgan and Goldman report before the bell. Q2 earnings season starts under a war cloud.

What to watch:

Monday 8:30am: June CPI. Monday 10am: Warsh testimony. Monday before open: JPMorgan + Goldman Q2 earnings. Tuesday: PPI. Wednesday: retail sales.

Heat Check

S&P 500 Heatmap — July 10, 2026. Credit: Finviz
S&P 500 Heatmap — July 10, 2026. Credit: Finviz

Nathan’s Take

“The deal collapsed. Airstrikes resumed. Oil surged 7%. And gold barely moved. The metal has stopped reacting to war entirely. It only listens to one voice now — and that voice testifies Monday at 10am”

Names to Know

JPMORGAN, GOLDMAN, DELTA

JPMorgan Chase $JPM (reports Monday) — kicks off Q2 earnings season; trading revenue expected to surge on war volatility; the bellwether for bank health.

Goldman Sachs $GS (reports Monday) — joins JPM on Monday; M&A advisory revenue is the number to watch after two $10B+ pharma deals in June.

Delta Air Lines $DAL (▼ 4%) — sold off as oil's surge threatens jet fuel costs; the cheap-oil tailwind from Q2 just reversed.

Raytheon Technologies $RTX (▲ 5.2%) — defense stocks rallied all week as the war restarted; the peace dividend is officially gone.

Brent Crude — back above $78; up 7% WoW; if it holds above $75, the disinflation thesis breaks and CPI overshoots.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

  • Iran reached out seeking a new deal — Trump confirmed; markets calming; but two days of airstrikes already disrupted Hormuz traffic.
  • NY Fed's Williams: most focused on “demand fueled by artificial intelligence” as an inflation driver — not oil; a new wrinkle for rate policy.
  • HSBC lowered its gold forecast to $4,560 for 2026 (from $4,864) — joining BofA in cutting targets on hawkish Fed expectations.
  • 10Y yield hit 4.58% — highest since May; mortgage rates rising again; the payrolls relief rally in housing is reversing.
  • Monday: June CPI (8:30am) + Warsh testimony (10am) + JPM/GS earnings — the biggest Monday of the summer.

Where I Missed

On Tuesday I wrote that FOMC minutes would “decide whether the payrolls rally continues.” I gave the minutes too much weight. What actually moved markets was Trump collapsing the deal at NATO — an event nobody had on their calendar. The minutes confirmed the 9-8 hawk split, but gold dropped on geopolitics, not the Fed. I was looking at the scheduled catalyst. The market was looking at Ankara. The lesson: in a shooting war, the unscheduled catalyst always wins.

Monday is the biggest day of the summer. CPI, Warsh, JPM, Goldman — all before lunch. Have a good weekend. You'll need it.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights

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