🔦 9-9 split. Warsh skipped the dot plot. The minutes drop at 2pm

WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE

FOMC minutes drop at 2pm. The committee split 9-9 on hikes. Warsh refused to submit a dot plot projection — the first Fed Chair to skip one since the practice began in 2012. SpaceX fell 1% on its Nasdaq-100 debut — classic sell-the-news. Gold is at $4,155, holding most of last week's payrolls-driven rally. Today's minutes decide whether that rally continues or reverses.

🟩 | FOMC minutes at 2pm — the committee split 9-9 on hikes; Warsh withheld his dot; minutes will reveal the fractures.

🟥 | SpaceX fell 1% on Nasdaq-100 day — sell-the-news; the $4.3B passive bid came and went; still below IPO opening price.

🟩 | Gold steady at $4,155 — holding payrolls gains; silver at $62.90; September hike odds at 50%.

Gold & Macro

WARSH SKIPPED THE DOT PLOT. NOBODY KNOWS WHY

Gold at $4,155 this morning. Steady. Waiting. At 2pm the FOMC minutes from the June 16-17 meeting land — and they carry more weight than usual. The committee split 9-9 on whether to hike this year. Nine members projected at least one increase. Eight projected no change. One projected a cut. And Warsh? He submitted nothing. First Chair in history to skip the dot plot.

That absence is the story. A Chair who withholds his projection is either keeping his options open or signaling that the data — not the dots — will decide. Either way, the minutes will reveal the arguments behind the split. If the hawks cited sticky services inflation, September stays alive and gold retreats. If the doves cited the labor market slowdown now confirmed by 57K payrolls, the hike path cracks and gold runs past $4,200.

JPMorgan's Shearer says gold is caught between its 200-day average near $4,340 and its 50-day near $4,730. At $4,155, it's below both. Today's minutes decide which way it breaks.

The Trade

SPACEX FELL ON INDEX DAY. HISTORY WARNED YOU

SpaceX dropped 1% on its first day in the Nasdaq-100. The $4.3 billion in passive buying came. It wasn't enough. History warned us: Palantir, Axon, CoreWeave, and Rocket Lab all fell after index inclusion. The one-time bid isn't a floor. The August 6 earnings report and first lockup expiry are the real tests.

Meanwhile the broader market is holding. The S&P at 7,535. Dow above 53,000. PepsiCo reports tomorrow — another consumer stress test after Nike's “nothing normal” warning. If PepsiCo misses, the consumer-is-cracking narrative hardens. If it beats, the bull case extends. The real catalyst is at 2pm — FOMC minutes will tell us whether September is a live meeting or a placeholder.

What to watch:

Today 2pm: FOMC minutes. Tomorrow: PepsiCo earnings + jobless claims. Friday: June CPI — the biggest number of the month.

Heat Check

Nathan’s Take

“Warsh skipped the dot plot. First Chair ever. Eighteen members told you what they think. The one who matters most told you nothing. At 2pm you find out whether that silence was strategy or indecision”

Names to Know

PEPSICO, DELTA, COSTCO

PepsiCo $PEP (▼ near 52W low) — reports Q2 tomorrow; consensus EPS $2.21; multiple analysts cut targets; at $144 the bar is low; consumer staples stress test.

Delta Air Lines $DAL (▲ 3.2%) — rallying on cheaper jet fuel from collapsing oil prices; travel demand remains strong despite consumer pullback in goods.

Costco $COST (▲ 1.5%) — hitting all-time highs as consumers trade down from department stores; the trade-down economy's biggest winner.

10-Year Treasury — yield at 4.50%, highest since late May; rising yields are the primary headwind for both gold and growth stocks.

VIX — at 15.9, near 2026 lows; the market is calm heading into FOMC minutes; low VIX before a catalyst = potential for a sharp move in either direction.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🏛️ | FOMC minutes at 2pm — committee split 9-9 on hikes; Warsh withheld his dot plot; minutes will show whether the division is philosophical or data-dependent.

📈 | 10Y yield returned to 4.50% — the dollar's strength is reasserting; HSBC's “explosive rally” warning still in play.

🛢️ | OPEC+ increasing production quotas — oil glut narrative strengthening; WTI below $68; the disinflation pipeline is accelerating.

🤖 | OpenAI and Anthropic both targeting IPOs within two years — Nasdaq fast-track rules pave the way; both seeking $1T+ valuations.

📊 | Friday: June CPI — the most important inflation print of the summer; consensus expects deceleration to 3.6% from 4.1%.

FOMC minutes at 2pm. PepsiCo tomorrow. CPI Friday. Three catalysts in three days. Stay sharp.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights