🎆 57K jobs. 110K expected. Your September hike just died
FRIDAY MARKET UPDATE
Payrolls missed. Big. Only 57,000 jobs added versus 110,000 expected — the weakest in four months. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs despite the World Cup. Gold surged to $4,183. The hike narrative just hit a wall. Markets close at 1pm for July 4th. This is the number that changes the second half.
🟩 | Gold surged to $4,183 — up 3.6% WoW; first green week in five; payrolls miss killed the hike narrative.
🟥 | Payrolls: +57K vs 110K expected — weakest in four months; leisure/hospitality shed 61K jobs despite World Cup tourism.
🟩 | Silver bounced 6.5% WoW — biggest weekly gain since March; the metals trade is alive again.
Gold & Macro — This Week in Metals
Five weeks of red. Then payrolls missed by half. Gold jumped $150 in two days. Silver gained 6.5%. The metals trade isn't dead — it was waiting for the Fed story to crack. It just did.
The Trade
57K JOBS. THE HIKE IS DEAD. NOW WHAT?
The economy added 57,000 jobs in June. The Street expected 110,000. Leisure and hospitality — the sector that should have boomed during the World Cup — lost 61,000 positions. Wages ticked up to 3.5% YoY. Unemployment fell to 4.2%, but only because workers left the labor force entirely. This is not a strong report dressed up as weak. It's weak.
September hike odds collapsed overnight. The market is now repricing toward a hold through year-end. That's the trade: if hikes are off the table, rate-sensitive sectors rally — homebuilders, REITs, small caps, gold. If the data keeps deteriorating, the conversation shifts from "will they hike" to "should they cut". SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 Monday with $4.3B in passive inflows. Markets close at 1pm today.
What to watch:
Tomorrow at 2 p.m.: FOMC decision, dot plot, and Warsh's first press conference at 2:30. May retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Thursday: Kroger, Lennar, FedEx earnings. Friday: formal signing in Switzerland — markets closed for Juneteenth.
Heat Check
Nathan’s Take
“The economy added 57,000 jobs. The Street expected twice that. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 during the World Cup. The hike story didn't just weaken — it broke. Gold knew it first”
Names to Know
GLD, IWM, XHB
SPDR Gold Trust $GLD (▲ 3.6% WoW) — biggest weekly gain since March; payrolls miss + Warsh softening = the hike narrative cracked.
iShares Russell 2000 $IWM (▲ 2.8%) — small caps rallying hard on rate-sensitive repricing; best week since the deal signing.
SPDR Homebuilders $XHB (▲ 4.1%) — homebuilders surging as mortgage rate expectations ease on weak jobs data.
Nike $NKE (▼ 8% WoW) — hit its lowest since 2015 after CEO Hill said retail is "not normal"; consumer discretionary's canary in the coal mine.
SpaceX $SPCX (▲ Nasdaq-100 Monday) — joins the index Monday; $4.3B in forced passive buying regardless of payrolls.
For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.
The Macro Edge
📊 | Payrolls missed badly: +57K vs 110K expected — leisure/hospitality lost 61K despite World Cup; weakest report in four months.
🏛️ | September hike odds collapsed — market repricing toward hold through year-end; Wharton's Siegel says hike case has "effectively disappeared."
🛢️ | Oil fell below $68 WTI — Hormuz flows accelerating; the glut narrative strengthening as supply outpaces demand recovery.
🏠| Mortgage rates easing — 30Y dropped 12bps on weak jobs data; homebuilder stocks responding immediately.
🎆 | Markets close at 1pm ET today — full closure Saturday July 4th; SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 Monday.
Happy Fourth. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 Monday. June CPI on July 10. Enjoy the fireworks — the market already set off a few.
Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights
