🚀 $4.3B in forced buying just hit SpaceX. Your QQQ owns a rocket now

TUESDAY MARKET UPDATE

SpaceX is officially in the Nasdaq-100 as of this morning. $4.3 billion in passive fund buying is hitting a stock with only 3-5% float. The Dow crossed 53,000 on Monday. September hike odds dropped to 50%. FOMC minutes land tomorrow. And gold is sitting at $4,148 wondering whether the payrolls miss was a one-off or the start of something bigger.

🟩 | SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 today — $4.3B in passive inflows hitting a 3-5% float; fastest index inclusion in history (15 trading days).

🟩 | Dow hit 53,000 Monday — semiconductor momentum lifted tech; S&P at 7,535; Nasdaq +1.35%.

🟥 | Gold eased to $4,148 — retreating from two-week highs on a firmer dollar; still up $150 from last week's sub-$4,000 breach.

Gold & Macro

HIKE ODDS CUT IN HALF. GOLD HELD

Gold at $4,148 this morning. Down slightly from Friday's $4,183 close on a firmer dollar. But the bigger picture is the reversal: September hike odds fell from 66% to 50% after the payrolls miss. That one number — 57K versus 110K expected — cut the probability of a rate increase in half. Gold responded with its best week since March.

JPMorgan capped its Q3 gold target at $4,300 and Q4 at $4,500 — noting that demand from key sectors “may not be as strong as previously expected”. Oil is sliding further as OPEC+ agreed to boost production and Hormuz traffic recovers. Lower oil = lower inflation expectations = less pressure on Warsh to hike. That's the chain reaction gold needs.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the next test. If the minutes reveal a divided committee — some members already questioning the hike path — gold rallies to $4,200+. If the minutes are uniformly hawkish, the payrolls miss gets dismissed as noise and gold retreats. One document. One direction.

The Trade

SPACEX JOINS THE NASDAQ-100. YOUR INDEX FUND JUST BOUGHT A ROCKET

As of this morning, every QQQ holder in America owns a piece of SpaceX. The company joined the Nasdaq-100 before the bell — the fastest index inclusion in history, just 15 trading days after its IPO. JPMorgan estimates $4.3 billion in passive fund buying. BNP Paribas puts the total closer to $8 billion. All of it hitting a stock with only 3-5% of shares in public float. That math creates the tightest supply-demand setup in the index's history.

But history says don't chase it. When CoreWeave, Rocket Lab, and Nebius joined the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, all three fell in the days after. Palantir and Axon declined in the 10 days following their 2024 inclusion. The passive bid is a one-time event, not a floor. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year and trades above 100x sales. The first real test is August 6 — when earnings arrive and the first insider lockup tranche expires.

What to watch:

Today: SpaceX Nasdaq-100 rebalancing volumes. Wednesday 2pm: FOMC minutes — the week's main event. Thursday: jobless claims. July 10: June CPI. July 14: PPI.

Heat Check

Nathan’s Take

“Your index fund just bought a money-losing rocket company at 100x sales. You didn't choose it. The index did. That's passive investing in 2026 — and it's worth understanding what's in the box”

Names to Know

SPACEX, PALANTIR, PEPSI

SpaceX $SPCX (Nasdaq-100 day) — joins the index today; $4.3-8B in passive buying; stock at ~$161; Starlink passed 10M subscribers; first lockup expires August 6.

Palantir $PLTR (▼ 31% YTD) — at $129; Rule of 40 score of 145% matches Nvidia; down from ATH but AI revenue accelerating; a SpaceX comparison for passive investors.

PepsiCo $PEP (▼ near 52W low) — reports Q2 Wednesday; consensus EPS $2.21; multiple analysts cut targets; at $144, 8.5% above its low; consumer staples stress test.

Samsung $SSNLF (Q2 July 23) — expected to show 17-fold operating profit surge to €86T; stock up 456% in a year; the HBM memory trade's other giant.

Invesco QQQ $QQQ (▲ 1.8%) — the ETF that just added SpaceX; $800B+ benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100; your 401(k) probably holds it.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🏛️ | September hike odds fell to 50% from 66% — payrolls miss repriced the entire H2 rate path; FOMC minutes Wednesday will confirm or deny.

🛢️ | OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas next month — oil below $68 WTI; Hormuz traffic recovering; glut narrative building.

📊 | Dow crossed 53,000 Monday — first time; semiconductor momentum carried tech; S&P at 7,535, near all-time highs.

🤖 | OpenAI and Anthropic both expected to IPO within two years — Nasdaq fast-track rules pave the way; both targeting $1T+ valuations.

📅 | Key dates: FOMC minutes (Wed), jobless claims (Thu), June CPI (Jul 10), PPI (Jul 14), Fed decision (Jul 29).

FOMC minutes tomorrow at 2pm. CPI Friday. SpaceX in the index. The second half is officially here.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights