Micron −13%, silver −4%, PCE tomorrow — tonight's earnings decide the summer...

WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE

Gold broke below $4,000 this morning. First time since early March. The S&P lost 1.44% yesterday. The Nasdaq dropped 2.2%. Micron fell 13%. And tonight, that same Micron reports earnings that will either stop the bleeding or make it worse. Buckle up.

🟥 | Gold broke below $4,000 — first time in nearly four months; down 29% from January's all-time high.

🟥 | S&P 500 fell 1.44% — Nasdaq dropped 2.2%; $1 trillion erased from chip stocks since Broadcom's miss.

🟩 | Oil hit pre-war levels — WTI at $72, Brent at $76; the entire war premium is gone.

Gold & Macro

GOLD BROKE $4,000. WARSH WON

Gold at $3,975 this morning. Below $4,000 for the first time since early March. Down 29% from January's $5,595 all-time high. That's $1,600 per ounce lost in five months. The safe haven that was supposed to protect your portfolio during a war didn't.

Silver crashed 4.2% to $62.34. The gold-silver ratio blew out to 66 — a two-week high. BofA warned of up to three rate hikes this year. December hike probability is now above 89%. The dollar broke above 100 on the DXY for the first time in 13 months. Every one of those numbers is gold-negative. And they're all connected to one man: Warsh.

Tomorrow's PCE is the last chance for gold before the summer. If core PCE comes in cool, gold bounces off this floor. If it comes in hot, $3,800 is next. Micron fell 13% yesterday and the tech crash is forcing investors to sell gold positions to cover margin calls. When stocks and gold fall together, that's not a correction. That's a liquidity event.

The Trade

MICRON REPORTS TONIGHT. $1 TRILLION RIDES ON IT

Micron fell 13.2% yesterday. That's $18 billion in market cap erased in a single session. SK Hynix — the world's top HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) producer — is slowing advanced AI chip production to boost commodity DRAM. That's a demand signal the bulls can't wave away. Qualcomm lost 8%. AMD dropped 5.8%. Nvidia fell 4.2%. The SOX has now erased over $1 trillion since Broadcom missed on June 4.

Tonight Micron reports. Consensus is $19.95 EPS on $34.66 billion revenue. The stock has surged 300% this year. Rev Shark called it “the most important single event of the week and arguably the most important in the next month”. If Micron beats and guides strong, the dip gets bought. If it misses — or guides cautiously like SK Hynix just signaled — the AI trade enters its first real correction since the war.

Meanwhile Alphabet joins the Dow on Monday, replacing Verizon. That swap tells you everything about what the index values now versus what it valued a decade ago. And Wendy's surged 42% intraday on a meme-stock-like retail frenzy triggered by a CFO appointment. 2021 called. It wants its market back.

What to watch:

Today after close: Micron earnings. Today: Nvidia shareholder meeting — Jensen Huang on Blackwell ramp and China export controls. Thursday 8:30 a.m.: May PCE inflation + Q1 GDP third estimate. Both data points decide the summer.

Heat Check

Nathan’s Take

“Gold below $4,000. Chips down $1 trillion. When stocks and gold fall together, that's not a correction. That's a liquidity event. And liquidity events don't care about your thesis”

Names to Know

MICRON, ALPHABET, WALMART

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 0.33% ) — plunged to $1,052 ahead of tonight's earnings; the 300% YTD gain under stress from SK Hynix's AI demand slowdown signal.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.11% ) — will join the Dow Jones next Monday, replacing Verizon; the Dow's first mega-cap tech add since Amazon in 2024.

Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 0.31% ) — rose as investors rotated into defensive consumer staples; trade-down behavior continues as consumers seek value.

FedEx $FDX ( ▼ 1.15% ) — fell despite beating Q4 estimates ($6.31 vs $5.96 EPS); post-spin-off guidance uncertainty; Citi called the drop “largely unjustified”.

Wendy's $WEN ( ▲ 28.7% ) — meme-stock-like surge on a CFO appointment; disconnected from fundamentals; 2021 called.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🇰🇷 | SK Hynix slowed advanced AI chip production to boost commodity DRAM — the #1 HBM producer signaling AI demand may be cooling.

🏛️ | December hike probability now above 89% per CME — BofA warning of three hikes accelerated the repricing.

🛢️ | Oil at pre-war levels — WTI $72, Brent $76 — Iran shipped 30M+ barrels last week as the 60-day export license takes effect.

🍔 | Wendy's surged 42% intraday on meme-stock retail enthusiasm triggered by a CFO appointment — settled back but the 2021 vibes are real.

🏛️ | Senate voted 50–48 on a war powers resolution — four Republicans joined Democrats; non-binding but signals bipartisan frustration with the conflict.

Micron at 4 p.m. PCE tomorrow at 8:30. Gold below $4,000. This is not a drill.

Nathan Reed  |  Profits & Insights