WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE
Welcome back to Profits & Insights.
We finally saw a pulse in the new issue market just before the year closed out. Medical supplies giant Medline $MDLN ( â–² 41.38% ) popped over 40% in its Nasdaq debut following a $6 billion offering. This stands as the largest global IPO of 2025.
For private investors, this is a critical signal. When a boring, cash-generative business like Medline commands this much capital, it tells me institutional appetite is returning for quality assets, not just speculative tech. Looking at the 2026 pipeline, this $6 billion deal might just be the warm-up act.
In the broader market, we saw a slight pullback as capital rotated out of premium AI valuations and into defensive sectors.
- 📈 | Land Play: Texas Pacific Land $TPL ( ▲ 7.59% ) jumped over 7% after inking a deal for data center development - proof that land ownership remains a prime way to play the AI infrastructure boom without the tech risk.
- 📉 | Financing Fail: Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 5.4% ) slipped after reports that it lost Blue Owl backing for a $10B project.
-Nathan Reed
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Market Movers
STREAMING WARS AND EdTech M&A
Jabil $JBL ( â–² 1.76% ) The stock gave back early gains despite strong guidance linked to AI data center build-outs.
Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( â–² 0.16% ) The board is reportedly favoring a proposal from Netflix $NFLX ( â–¼ 0.01% ) over the hostile bid from Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( â–² 0.61% ).
DBV Technologies $DBVT ( â–² 25.42% ) Shares surged 25% on positive Phase 3 results for a peanut allergy treatment - a massive addressable market if approved.
Coursera $COUR ( â–¼ 1.26% ) / Udemy $UDMY ( â–² 12.66% ) Consolidation has arrived in EdTech. Coursera is acquiring Udemy in an all-stock deal valuing the combined entity at $2.5B.
Brown-Forman $BF.B ( â–¼ 5.16% ) The spirits maker fell after a downgrade from Citi, citing continued headwinds in the alcohol category.
For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.
Investment Deep Dive
WHY "SIN STOCKS" ARE A TOP PICK FOR 2026
The Setup
Consumer staples have been dead money in 2025. Investors were too busy chasing AI to worry about toothpaste and tobacco. However, Goldman Sachs believes the tide is turning. They are betting on a revival in "Sin Stocks" and select staples for 2026.
The Thesis
Analyst Bonnie Herzog argues that a stronger middle-income consumer will reignite growth in specific categories:
- Nicotine: Philip Morris $PM ( â–² 0.42% ) remains a favorite for its pricing power and emerging market growth.
- Energy Drinks: Monster $MNST ( â–¼ 1.33% ) and Celsius $CELH ( â–¼ 5.38% ) are seen as oversold. The growth story hasn't broken; the valuation just reset.
- Beer: Next year brings a trifecta of consumption events: The World Cup, The Olympics, and the U.S. 250th Anniversary. Goldman likes Constellation $STZ ( â–¼ 2.01% ) and Molson Coors $TAP ( â–² 0.52% ) to benefit.
My Take
When the market gets choppy, capital hides in what people consume regardless of the economy. "Sin stocks" (alcohol, nicotine) and "affordable luxuries" (beauty, candy) often outperform when discretionary spending tightens elsewhere. It is a defensive rotation with upside.
WHAT ELSE IS MOVING MARKETS
Auto Finance Fraud: Executives at Tricolor have been charged with systematic fraud, accused of double-pledging auto loans.
Cloud Wars: Amazon $AMZN ( â–¼ 0.58% ) is reportedly in talks to invest $10B in OpenAI, a move that would challenge Microsoft's dominance over the AI startup.
AI Speed: Google released Gemini 3 Flash, aiming to undercut OpenAI on speed and efficiency.
Streaming Shift: The Oscars are leaving ABC $DIS ( â–¼ 0.89% ) for YouTube $GOOGL ( â–² 1.16% ) starting in 2029 - the final nail in the coffin for linear TV's grip on live cultural events.
Philanthropy: Ray Dalio has pledged $75M to fund accounts for Connecticut children.
